OPEC+ May Consider Increasing Oil Output on Sunday, Sources Report

• The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, forcing top OPEC producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE to cut output significantly.
• OPEC+ agreed to a modest 206,000 bpd increase for April at its March 1 meeting; any new increase would be largely symbolic ('on paper') to signal readiness once shipping resumes.
• Saudi Arabia has rerouted exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea to near capacity (4.6 million bpd), while UAE exports from Fujairah rose to 1.61 million bpd in March, accounting for nearly half its pre-war total exports.

Summary: OPEC+ May Consider Increasing Oil Output on Sunday, Sources Report

OPEC+ is expected to discuss a potential oil output increase when eight member countries meet on Sunday, April 6, 2026, according to two sources. The move would position producers to add supply should the Strait of Hormuz—currently shut due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran—reopen.

Key Developments:

The conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, with the Strait of Hormuz closure impacting over 20% of global oil transit. Crude prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel, a four-year high. Major producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have been forced to cut output due to the strait's effective closure.

Production Context:

At its March 1 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April. The eight countries involved in monthly production decisions—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—previously raised quotas by approximately 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025 before pausing increases in early 2026.

Market Implications:

Sources indicate any output increase would likely have minimal immediate impact but would signal readiness to boost production once Hormuz reopens. Oil prices dropped toward $100 on Wednesday following peace speculation but rebounded Thursday. One source noted "the market requires every barrel that can be produced."

Saudi Arabia has rerouted exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, with shipments surging to approximately 4.6 million bpd near capacity. UAE exports through Fujairah rose to 1.61 million bpd in March from 1.17 million bpd in February, representing nearly half of pre-war UAE exports.