Morocco has diesel stocks for 51 days, energy ministry says

• Morocco's 2026 budget assumes $60 per barrel oil, well below current Brent crude levels, potentially straining the fiscal deficit as energy imports totaled $11.5 billion in 2025
• The country has diversified energy supply sources from Europe and the U.S., and reduced gas consumption by 11% in Q1 by increasing hydroelectric generation after rainfall filled dams
• Morocco's central bank can tap a $4.5 billion IMF flexible credit line if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, providing a financial cushion against further price increases

Summary

Morocco faces critical energy supply challenges following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, which drove international crude prices to record monthly gains in March. The North African nation, which has no domestic refining capacity since its sole refinery closed in 2015, currently holds diesel stocks for 51 days and petrol for 55 days. Coal and gas supplies are secured through end-June.

Market Impact:

Fuel stations increased diesel and petrol prices by approximately 30% following the Middle East tensions. The government has reintroduced subsidies for professional transporters—including taxis, buses, and trucks—after eliminating diesel subsidies in 2014. However, petroleum product pricing remains largely market-driven as import, storage, and distribution are managed by private firms.

Key Figures:

• Morocco's 2026 budget assumes $60/barrel oil, significantly below current Brent crude levels
• Energy imports totaled $11.5 billion in 2025, down 5% year-over-year
• Coal represents 60% of electricity production; renewables 25%; natural gas 10%
• Gas consumption decreased 11% in Q1 2026 due to increased hydroelectric generation
• Morocco has access to a $4.5 billion IMF flexible credit line if oil exceeds $120/barrel

Supply Diversification:

The energy ministry highlighted efforts to diversify supply sources from Europe and the United States. Gas imports now flow from Spanish LNG terminals via pipeline, following the halt of Algerian gas supplies. New coal tenders will be issued mid-April for Q3 coverage.

The finance minister acknowledged that Middle East tensions will drive inflation, though specific fiscal deficit implications remain undisclosed.