Dow soars over 1,100 points as Trump sparks hope on Wall Street that Iran war is nearing end

New York Post | March 31, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
Bullish 89% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • The S&P 500 jumped nearly 3% and Nasdaq surged 3.8% to 21,590 points, with major tech stocks leading gains: Nvidia and Alphabet up over 5%, Meta rising 6%, and Amazon gaining over 4%
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated the next few days would be decisive, warning Iran the conflict would intensify without a deal, fueling market optimism about an 'earlier off-ramp'
  • The Iran war has put the S&P 500 and Dow on track for their deepest quarterly declines since early 2022, with money markets now pricing higher odds of Fed rate hikes than cuts by year-end due to oil-driven inflation concerns

AI Summary

Market Summary: Wall Street Rallies on Iran Conflict De-escalation Hopes

Market Performance:

Wall Street posted its strongest session since May on Tuesday, with all three major indexes surging on speculation of a potential end to the Middle East conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1,125 points (+2.5%) to 46,341.51, the S&P 500 jumped nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.8% to 21,590 points.

Key Catalyst:

President Trump reportedly told aides he was willing to end military operations against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated the next few days would be decisive, warning Tehran the conflict would intensify without a deal.

Sector Impact:

Technology megacaps led gains: Nvidia and Alphabet rose over 5%, Meta Platforms climbed 6%, and Amazon advanced 4%. CoreWeave jumped 10% after securing an $8.5 billion loan for AI infrastructure expansion. Marvell Technology surged 13% following a $2 billion investment from Nvidia.

Market Context:

The month-long conflict had pushed the Dow and Nasdaq 10% below record highs, with both indexes on track for their deepest quarterly declines since early 2022. Rising oil prices from the conflict have reignited inflation concerns, with money market traders now pricing in higher probability of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts by year-end.

Corporate News:

Unilever agreed to merge its food unit with McCormick in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the spice maker at $44.8 billion. Constellation Energy fell 8% on weak 2026 profit guidance.

Economic Data:

February job openings fell more than expected, with hiring dropping to the lowest level in nearly six years, adding to the complex economic backdrop.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 85%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 88%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 95%
Consensus Bullish 89%