S&P Global Energy President: Iran war to push pain for oil futures

• Crude oil prices could reach $150-$200/barrel if the Iran conflict persists, with physical market pain soon reflecting in futures prices.
• Iran's potential toll on transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be 'traumatizing' for shippers and could strengthen Iran's position.
• The UK's last Middle East jet fuel tanker arrival signals a shift to alternative, more distant supply sources (US, Australia, China, Guyana, Canada), which will take time to ramp up.
• The market faces a structural weakness as most flexible oil supply was previously in the Middle East, limiting quick production increases elsewhere.
• S&P Global Energy expects continued volatility in energy markets through April.

The S&P Global Energy President discusses the escalating impact of the Iran war on global energy markets, forecasting potential crude oil prices of $150-$200 per barrel. He highlights the convergence of physical and futures market pain, the strategic implications of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the long-term challenges in re-shaping global energy flows away from the Middle East.