Uncertainty "Unwind:" Ways SPX & Crude Oil Will Move if U.S., Iran Conflict Ends

Schwab Network | March 31, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
Bullish 95% Confidence
Watch on YouTube

Key Points

  • Futures are trading higher on reports that President Trump is prepared to end the Iran campaign.
  • The US is not dependent on oil from the Strait of Hormuz, as 90% of that oil goes to China.
  • A de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East could lead to a 'big move' for crude oil and a positive market recovery.
  • Upcoming economic data includes JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, ADP Employment, Challenger Job-Cut, Jobless Claims, and the March Jobs Report.

AI Summary

The video discusses the market's positive reaction to a Wall Street Journal report indicating President Trump's readiness to end the Iran campaign without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This potential de-escalation is seen as a significant factor in dissipating regional tensions and could lead to a substantial movement in crude oil prices, positively impacting broader equity markets.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 95%
Consensus Bullish 95%