March is the cruellest month

• Oil prices surged with Brent crude hovering around $115 per barrel and U.S. crude at $104, driving gas pump prices above $5 per gallon for the first time in three years
• Eurozone inflation accelerated sharply to 2.5% in March from 1.9% previously, while German inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.0%, prompting the IMF to warn that 'all roads lead to higher inflation and slower growth'
• Asian markets experienced significant losses with South Korea's KOSPI suffering its worst session since 2008, while China's factory activity showed unexpected strength, growing at the fastest pace in a year

Market Summary: Q1 2026 Ends Amid Iran Conflict and Energy Crisis

Key Developments:

The first quarter of 2026 concluded with significant market turbulence driven by an Iran war and resulting energy price shock. Average U.S. gas pump prices surpassed $5 per gallon for the first time in over three years. Reports indicate President Trump is seeking an immediate exit strategy without opening the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily lifting U.S. stock futures.

Energy Markets:

Crude oil prices surged, with Brent hovering around $115 per barrel and U.S. crude at approximately $104. Military escalations continue in the Gulf region, with additional U.S. troop deployments reported.

Equity Markets:

• U.S. and European stock futures showed modest gains
• Asian markets suffered heavy losses, with South Korea's KOSPI posting its largest decline since 2008
• Wall Street experienced a "bruising March"

Inflation and Economic Data:

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% previously, while German inflation jumped to 2.8% from 2.0%. The IMF warned that "all roads lead to higher inflation and slower growth."

China's manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in a year, though sustainability remains uncertain given the energy shock.

Central Bank Response:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted long-term inflation expectations remain stable but emphasized a "wait and see" approach. U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly but remain elevated for the month. Central banks globally are being given room to pause amid the energy crisis.

Upcoming Data:

Key U.S. releases include February JOLTS job openings, March consumer confidence index, and the March jobs report on Good Friday.