Fed hike could raise recession risk: David Rosenberg

• Rosenberg supports Fed Chair Powell's decision to not raise interest rates in response to the oil supply shock caused by the Iran war.
• He believes that raising rates in this environment would be a 'monumental mistake' and could lead to a 'borderline depression,' contrasting it with past periods like 2008.
• The U.S. labor market is characterized as 'no-firing, no-hiring,' with declining employment outside of health and education, suggesting underlying economic weakness.
• Rosenberg anticipates the Fed will cut interest rates more than twice this year.

David Rosenberg agrees with Fed Chair Powell's 'wait-and-see' approach regarding the Iran war's impact on inflation, arguing that raising interest rates in response to a supply shock would be a 'monumental mistake' and could lead to a 'borderline depression.' He highlights a weakening labor market and expects the Fed to cut rates more than twice this year.