Dow gains; S&P, Nasdaq drop as oil surges on Trump warning

• US crude oil settled at $102.88 per barrel (up 3.25%), its highest close since July 2022, while Brent crude traded near $112-$114 on its steepest monthly gain on record
• Trump issued mixed signals on Iran conflict, warning of potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, while also citing 'serious discussions' with a 'more reasonable regime'
• Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations remain anchored and policy is 'in a good place to wait and see,' while traders have now priced out rate cuts for 2026 (previously expecting two cuts before the conflict)

Market Summary: Oil Surge and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Mixed Session

Market Performance:

US stocks closed mixed on Monday, March 30, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, extending its decline to 9.3% from recent highs and approaching correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.73%, pressured by technology stocks declining over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% (approximately 50 points).

Energy Market Developments:

Oil prices surged significantly, with US crude settling 3.25% higher at $102.88 per barrel—the highest close since July 2022. Brent crude traded near $112-$114, on track for its steepest monthly gain on record. The rally stems from intensifying Iran conflict, with Yemen's Houthi militia entering the conflict over the weekend.

Geopolitical Factors:

President Trump delivered mixed signals, indicating potential diplomatic progress while threatening escalated attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure if negotiations fail and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Market analysts noted these conflicting messages are creating volatility.

Sector Performance:

Technology stocks were the biggest market drag. Financial stocks advanced following new Department of Labor guidance. The CBOE Volatility Index briefly exceeded 30, reflecting heightened market anxiety.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled patience, stating inflation expectations remain anchored despite energy shocks. However, markets have largely priced out rate cuts for 2026, compared to earlier expectations for two cuts pre-conflict.

Market Context:

Major indices recorded five consecutive weekly declines, with the Dow and Nasdaq already in correction territory. Investors are displaying cautious hedging behavior, particularly heading into weekends amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.