Dow Jones rebounds 300 points as war tensions test markets, oil surges

• Oil price surge led energy stocks higher but revived inflation fears, with markets now pricing in zero Fed rate cuts for 2025 compared to expectations of two cuts before the conflict
• The Dow Jones entered correction territory last week, closing more than 10% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 also fell into correction
• Trump warned Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US attacks on energy infrastructure, though indicated 'serious discussions' were underway with a 'more reasonable regime'

Market Summary: Dow Rebounds Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Surge

Market Performance:

US stocks opened higher on Monday, March 30, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 333 points (+0.74%), the S&P 500 gaining 0.63%, and the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.60%. This rebound follows the fifth consecutive weekly decline—the longest losing streak in nearly four years—which pushed the Dow into correction territory (down over 10% from record highs).

Geopolitical Developments:

President Trump stated the US is engaged in serious discussions with Iran to end the Middle East conflict but warned of potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia has entered the conflict, with additional US troops deployed. Pakistan is facilitating potential talks in coming days.

Energy and Inflation Impact:

Oil prices surged, boosting energy stocks significantly. The rally has reignited inflation concerns, dramatically altering Fed policy expectations. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, markets now price in zero interest rate cuts for 2026, down from expectations of two cuts pre-conflict.

Sector Performance:

Energy stocks led gains on the oil rally. Aluminum producers rallied sharply, with Alcoa up 11.47% and Century Aluminum gaining 16.95% as metal prices reached four-year highs. Sysco also showed gains.

Analyst Actions:

Morgan Stanley downgraded global equities to "equal weight" from "overweight," though noted increased fund flows into US assets, suggesting continued safe-haven status.

Upcoming Catalysts:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and NY Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak Monday. March nonfarm payrolls data is expected this week. Markets close Friday for Good Friday.