How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out

• Oil prices have surged dramatically with WTI crude up 49% to $99.64 per barrel and Brent up 55% to $112.57 since U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran began February 28
• Jet fuel prices jumped $200 per barrel and diesel $160 per barrel, with China banning oil exports and Thailand rationing gasoline as shortages ripple across Asia
• Security experts warn escalation is likely as Iran seeks a grand bargain rather than ceasefire, while Gulf Arab nations could see 30% GDP drops if the war continues

Market Summary: Iran War Supply Disruption Impact

Key Developments

Oil and gas executives at S&P Global's CERAWeek conference in Houston delivered stark warnings about unprecedented supply disruptions caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Leaders characterized this as the worst oil shock since the 1973 Arab embargo.

Critical Data Points

• Supply impact: 8-10 million barrels per day of oil disrupted, representing approximately 20% of global LNG supplies
• Price surge: WTI crude up 49% to $99.64/barrel; Brent up 55% to $112.57/barrel since February 28 U.S.-Israel strikes
• Refined products: Jet fuel prices surged $200/barrel; diesel up $160/barrel
• Recovery timeline: 3-4 months needed for Gulf Arab countries to fully restore production
• Economic impact: Potential 30% GDP drop for Iraq, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia

Companies Mentioned

ConocoPhillips, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Cheniere Energy

Market Implications

Executives warned markets are underpricing the disruption's severity. Shell CEO Wael Sawan emphasized physical fuel shortages—particularly jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline—are already impacting Asia and will reach Europe by April. China has banned oil exports; Thailand is rationing gasoline.

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance indicated oil price "floors" must rise, suggesting prices won't return to pre-war levels soon. The company has evacuated non-essential staff from Qatar LNG facilities.

Security experts predict likely escalation, with Iran seeking broader concessions beyond a simple ceasefire. Former Defense Secretary James Mattis characterized the situation as a stalemate with high escalation risk, noting the U.S. faces challenges protecting extensive Gulf shipping lanes.