'Best case scenario' global oil market loses 600 million barrels, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

• Equities remain on downgrade watch; the market is entering a 'second phase' of sell-off, looking past inflation to recessionary consequences.
• Cross-asset moves (gold rallying, 2-year yields dropping, oil rallying) signal a shift in market focus towards recessionary fears.
• If the conflict lasts 4 more weeks, the S&P 500 could enter a bear market, and oil could reach $150/barrel due to a 10 million barrel/day supply hole, leading to 600 million barrels of lost global inventory in two months.

Warren Pies believes equities remain on downgrade watch, with the market entering a second phase of sell-off driven by the prolonged conflict and its recessionary consequences. He highlights cross-asset moves like gold rallying and 2-year yields dropping amidst rising oil prices as a warning sign. Pies predicts the S&P 500 could enter a bear market and oil could hit $150/barrel if the conflict continues for another month, leading to significant global inventory losses.