Stocks Are in Retreat After a Month of War. Here Are the Losers—And Winners

• Materials sector suffered most: gold miners Coeur Mining and Newmont dropped 37% and 21% respectively as gold fell 14% and silver plunged 25% since the war began
• Rising mortgage rates (from 6% to 6.4%) and oil prices have hammered homebuilders like Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup (all down 15%+) along with airlines and cruise operators (down 15-24%)
• Energy is the only winning sector, up 12%, with refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy leading gains at 27% and 24%, though stock performance lags oil's 45% spike, suggesting market skepticism about sustainability

Summary: Market Retreat One Month Into Iran Conflict

Market Performance:

Major U.S. indices have entered correction territory following one month of conflict in Iran. The Nasdaq Composite fell 7.5% in March and sits 10% below its October 2025 record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 8% during the same period, with the S&P 500 declining by approximately the same amount.

Key Losers:

• Materials Sector: Gold miners suffered severely, with Coeur Mining down 37% and Newmont falling 21%. Gold prices declined 14% since the war began, while silver plummeted 25%.
• Homebuilders: Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup all dropped 15% or more as 30-year mortgage rates increased from 6% to 6.4%. Construction suppliers like Builders FirstSource and Stanley Black & Decker fell over 20%.
• Travel Industry: Airlines and cruise operators experienced significant losses, with Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean down 15-23%, while Southwest Airlines fell 24% and United Airlines dropped 17%.
• Consumer Sectors: Both discretionary and staples sectors declined 8-9%.

Winners:

Energy emerged as the only positive S&P 500 sector, gaining 12% as crude oil prices surged 45%. Refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy led with gains of 27% and 24% respectively. Oil producers Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips also posted double-digit increases.

Market Implications:

The conflict has disrupted 2026 market optimism by driving oil prices higher and reversing interest rate expectations. Traders now see a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, compared to anticipated cuts earlier. Analysts suggest energy stocks may have further upside if oil remains elevated, depending on diplomatic resolution and the reopening of strategic waterways.