The Iran War Has Shaken Up Asset Prices—From Gold to Oil and Bitcoin—After Its First Month

• The SPDR Gold Trust is down 16% and iShares Silver Trust down nearly 25% since the war's start, defying expectations that geopolitical uncertainty would boost precious metals
• Crude oil prices jumped 50% due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, with restoration expected to take 3-4 months even if hostilities end
• Bitcoin has risen 1.5% since the conflict began, outperforming both stocks and traditional safe havens, while the Federal Reserve has shifted to a slightly hawkish stance due to oil price pressures

Summary: Iran War Impact on Asset Prices After One Month

Key Market Movements:

One month into the Iran war, asset classes have diverged significantly from typical geopolitical crisis patterns. Crude oil has surged dramatically, with Brent futures reaching approximately $110/barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $97/barrel—levels unseen since the pandemic. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) has gained 50% since the conflict began.

Underperforming Assets:

Contrary to expectations, precious metals have declined sharply. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 16% and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dropped nearly 25% since the war's start. Despite these declines, spot gold remains elevated at around $4,480/troy ounce, while silver trades near $70.

Bitcoin as Safe Haven:

Bitcoin unexpectedly outperformed traditional safe havens, rising 1.5% via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and trading near $66,000. This represents better performance than both the S&P 500 and precious metals, challenging gold's traditional role during geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Drivers:

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade passageway, and damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure have shocked global energy markets. President Trump's recent de-escalation attempts through negotiation haven't significantly impacted prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar has added downward pressure on precious metals due to their inverse relationship.

Federal Reserve Implications:

Higher crude prices have shifted the Fed's stance slightly hawkish, with traders pricing in potential rate increases rather than cuts.

Outlook:

RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimates 3-4 months needed to restore crude production even if hostilities cease, suggesting elevated prices may persist regardless of diplomatic outcomes.