The Iran War Has Shaken Up Asset Prices—From Gold to Oil and Bitcoin—After Its First Month

• Brent crude futures reached $110 per barrel and WTI hit $97, up 50% since the war started, driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East energy infrastructure damage
• Gold and silver have disappointed investors, with gold ETFs down 16% and silver ETFs down nearly 25% since the conflict began, despite expectations they would benefit from geopolitical uncertainty
• Bitcoin gained 1.5% during the period, outperforming the S&P 500 and taking on the safe-haven role traditionally associated with gold

Summary: Iran War Impact on Asset Prices After One Month

Key Market Movements:

One month into the Iran conflict, asset classes have diverged significantly from historical patterns. Crude oil has emerged as the top performer, while precious metals have unexpectedly underperformed despite geopolitical tensions.

Commodity Performance:

• Crude Oil: Brent futures reached approximately $110/barrel, WTI at $97/barrel—levels unseen since the pandemic. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) surged 50% since conflict onset
• Precious Metals: Gold and silver disappointed safe-haven expectations. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) down 16%, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) down nearly 25%. Spot gold currently trades around $4,480/troy ounce, silver at $70
• Bitcoin: Outperformed equities and precious metals, up 1.5% (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC), trading near $66,000—unexpectedly assuming the safe-haven role

Conflict Impact:

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy trade route, has been effectively closed, severely disrupting global energy markets. President Trump's recent de-escalation efforts and negotiation attempts have not significantly calmed markets.

Economic Implications:

The Federal Reserve's stance has shifted slightly hawkish due to elevated crude prices, with traders now pricing in potential rate increases rather than cuts. The strengthening U.S. dollar has added downward pressure on precious metals due to their inverse relationship.

Outlook:

RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft warns that even if hostilities cease, crude oil production restoration could take 3-4 months. Markets may not revert to pre-conflict levels given existing infrastructure damage. The possibility of extended military operations remains a significant concern for energy markets.