JPM's Michele: See Growth Slowdown, But Not Recession Amid $100 Oil

• Higher real yields are already impacting the American economy, with recent FOMC expectations for rate cuts shifting due to labor market and energy cost concerns.
• JPMorgan (Bob Michele) predicts a significant growth slowdown but not a recession, even with $100 oil, and sees inflation rising slightly.
• The Fed is in a 'wait-and-see' mode, observing whether the labor market weakens or energy price increases fully pass through to consumer goods and services.
• Other central banks like the ECB and Bank of England, with single inflation mandates, are expected to remain hawkish and likely raise rates.
• The market is concerned about geopolitical stability in the Middle East, particularly Iran's influence over oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and the administration's ability to de-escalate.

JPMorgan's Bob Michele discusses the current macroeconomic landscape, noting that higher real yields are already impacting the US economy. While he anticipates a significant growth slowdown and rising inflation, he does not foresee a recession even with $100 oil. Central banks, particularly the ECB and Bank of England, are expected to remain hawkish due to their inflation-focused mandates.