Sam Burns Compares 2026's Market Plunge to 2025, Explains VIX's Creeping Climb

Schwab Network | March 27, 2026 at 01:16 PM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Current market is risk-off due to Iran War, unlike last year's tariff shock which was a unilateral US action and reversible.
  • Rising interest rates and a strong US dollar are unusual for a typical risk-off environment, indicating inflation concerns.
  • Gold is trading more like a risk asset, not a safe haven, having rallied before the geopolitical escalation and now selling off.
  • Recommendation: favor more cash, less equity, and avoid long-duration debt due to inflation concerns.
  • Technology (especially hardware-related names) and financials (banks less exposed to private credit) are favored sectors due to strong earnings estimates and recent valuation pullbacks.
  • Elevated VIX suggests investors are hedging against potential downside, indicating high uncertainty and a cautious sentiment.

AI Summary

Sam Burns discusses the current market environment, comparing the Iran War's impact to last year's tariff shock. He notes a shift to risk-off sentiment, with rising interest rates and a strong dollar, suggesting 'cash is king' amid geopolitical uncertainty. Technology and financials are favored sectors, while the elevated VIX indicates investor hedging and caution.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 90%