Morning Bid: You can't handle the 'Truth'

• Trump delayed his Iran deadline twice via Truth Social posts, but the second announcement had significantly less market impact than the first, with crude prices stabilizing rather than dropping and equity futures returning to losses
• Brent crude topped $109/barrel and oil supply disruptions may be impacting up to a significant portion of global supply, yet futures curves remain optimistic about a swift resolution despite damaged energy infrastructure
• Counterintuitive safe-haven behavior emerged as both Treasury bonds and gold weakened since the crisis began on February 28, while private credit funds including Oaktree capped investor withdrawals amid redemption spikes

Market Summary: Geopolitical Tensions and Presidential Social Media Impact Markets

Key Developments

President Trump's Truth Social posts are driving significant market volatility. A Monday post claiming "productive" talks with Iran moved trillions in assets, with oil dropping over 10% before reversing. However, the impact is diminishing—Thursday's announcement delaying Iranian energy strikes to April 6 produced only modest market responses.

Market Performance & Figures

• Nasdaq: Down 2% Thursday, officially entering correction territory
• Brent crude: Surged to over $108/barrel Thursday, edging past $109/barrel Friday
• Asian markets: South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 4% Friday
• U.S. gasoline: Approaching $4/gallon
• Supply disruption: Oil markets experiencing disruption levels not fully priced in
• Presidential approval: Only 29% approve of Trump's economic handling, his worst rating

Geopolitical Situation

Trump delayed the 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to five days, then extended the attack deadline again. Tehran rejected Trump's 15-point proposal, and the U.S. is reportedly sending additional military assets to the Gulf. Trump's Beijing trip to meet President Xi has been postponed, suggesting he expects the conflict resolved within six weeks.

Asset Class Reactions

Treasuries and gold have weakened since the crisis began February 28, contrary to typical safe-haven behavior. The $30-trillion Treasury market shows increased volatility with poor debt auctions. Private credit funds, including Oaktree, are capping investor withdrawals amid redemption spikes.

Major banks are raising S&P 500 forecasts despite volatility, betting on strong earnings growth. The crisis may accelerate Asia's energy transition, benefiting China's EV sector, while gas-dependent Europe faces significant challenges.