Thursday's Final Takeaways: Recession Odds Increase & Fed's Uphill Inflation Fight

• Mortgage rates are climbing to a seven-month high, with 30-year fixed rates in the mid-6% range, leading to a significant drop in mortgage demand and refinance activity.
• Recession odds are creeping upwards, with Moody's Analytics model at 48.6% and other firms like Goldman Sachs and EY Parthenon also raising their estimates, driven by rising energy costs, softening labor markets, and geopolitical pressures.
• Jobless claims remain stable, providing the Fed some breathing room, but the OECD has lifted its annual inflation forecast for the US to 4.2% (from 3%), more than double the Fed's target, due to the energy shock.
• Tomorrow's watch includes Carnival earnings, with investors focusing on cruise load factors, pricing power, forward bookings, and commentary on managing fuel and labor costs amid inflation. Trump's Iran deadline has been extended by 10 days, potentially offering a temporary reprieve for markets.

The video discusses rising mortgage rates and increasing recession odds, with Wall Street forecasters sharply lifting their probabilities for a US recession. While jobless claims remain stable, the Fed faces an uphill battle against inflation driven by energy costs and geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead, Carnival's earnings and the extended Trump's Iran deadline are key watch factors.