Energy prices likely to hit wider economy more quickly than in 2022, ECB's Sleijpen says

• Sleijpen expects faster transmission of energy price shocks compared to 2022 because economic actors are now 'more alert' to inflation impacts on spending power after the previous energy crisis
• The ECB will focus on inflation expectations and producer prices at its April 30 meeting to determine if second-round effects (companies raising prices, workers demanding higher wages) are materializing
• Data for the April meeting will be incomplete, as the 'complete picture' of economic impacts will not have emerged in the short period since energy prices began surging

Summary

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen warned on March 24, 2026, that surging oil and gas prices will likely penetrate the broader economy faster than during the 2022 energy crisis. The Dutch Central Bank Governor expressed concern about accelerated second-round effects, where companies raise prices to offset higher input costs and workers demand wage increases.

Key Points:

Sleijpen indicated the ECB will have more clarity on second-round effects at its April 30 rate-setting meeting, though he acknowledged data will remain incomplete. The central bank plans to closely monitor inflation expectations and producer prices as critical indicators.

Critical Difference from 2022:

Unlike the 2022 Ukraine war-driven energy shock, which occurred during a low-inflation environment, current market participants are more alert to price pressures. This heightened awareness means households and businesses recognize spending power impacts more quickly, allowing price shocks to "ripple through the economy" faster.

Market Implications:

The ECB emphasized it cannot control energy prices directly but stands ready to act if second-round effects materialize. Sleijpen's comments suggest potential monetary policy tightening if inflationary pressures spread beyond energy sectors into wages and broader prices.

The statement signals the ECB is on high alert for inflation becoming entrenched, with April's meeting critical for assessing whether current energy price increases will require policy intervention. However, policymakers acknowledged they will need to make decisions with incomplete information, as the "complete picture will not have emerged" by late April.

This represents a more hawkish stance given lessons learned from the 2022 energy crisis and heightened inflation sensitivity across the eurozone economy.