Markets hanging on 'every word' as US-Iran conflict nears one month, former NEC director warns

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to U.S. ships, blocking approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas supply
• National average gasoline prices jumped to $3.95 per gallon, a $1+ increase from the pre-conflict price of $2.94
• Cohn emphasized that oil prices are the biggest determinant of short-term and long-term economic outcomes, with volatility creating both opportunities and risks for investors

Summary: Markets on Edge as US-Iran Conflict Enters Fourth Week

Former National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn warned that financial markets are hanging on "every word" as the US conflict with Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, stretches into its fourth week, creating significant economic pressure on Americans.

Key Market Impact:

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. ships has created "enormous" market volatility. Approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas passes through this critical waterway, directly impacting domestic prices.

Specific Data Points:

• National average gasoline price: $3.95 per gallon (current) vs. $2.94 pre-conflict
• Price increase: Over $1 per gallon since U.S. strikes began
• Timeline: Conflict duration approaching one month

Market Dynamics:

Cohn emphasized that oil prices represent the "biggest determinant" of both short-term and long-term economic outlook, with oil movement "weighing down heavily on stock markets and other assets." He noted that apart from the Middle East situation, the economy is "in pretty fair shape."

Investment Guidance:

The former Trump administration official advised investors that volatility, driven by fear and greed, can be "a friend or enemy." He stressed the importance of having a game plan and executing decisively when opportunities arise, warning against trying to time the market perfectly. Cohn acknowledged markets are "fickle" and move quickly on minimal information.

Broader Implications:

The conflict's resolution will likely determine near-term market direction, with energy prices serving as the primary economic barometer as uncertainty continues to drive significant market swings.