Kevin Book on Oil Markets, Hormuz Risk, Price Shock

• 80% of crude oil traffic from the Strait of Hormuz is headed to Asia, but global price implications will affect US coasts.
• Crude oil prices could reach $174/barrel by April 30th based on current trends.
• Gasoline prices could double, nearing a $6/gallon national average.
• Supply disruptions are expected to last for weeks or months, with restarts of gracefully shut facilities taking up to six months, and longer for damaged ones.
• As prices rise, government interventions (e.g., price controls) tend to intensify.

Kevin Book discusses the potential for sharply higher crude and gasoline prices due to prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. He projects crude prices could reach $174/barrel by April 30th, leading to a national average gasoline price nearing $6/gallon. The supply disruption is expected to last for weeks or months, even if the conflict ends soon.