Staying Calm Amid the Geopolitical Chaos

• S&P 500 has been choppy over the past five months, but historical data shows average returns of 6.2% at six months and 22% at 24 months after major geopolitical events settle
• When the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closes above 23.5, stocks have generated average returns of 11.3% at six months and 32.3% at 24 months since 2015
• Dividend growth stocks like Archrock (AROC) with 2.5% forward yield and Diamondback Energy (FANG) with 2.47% forward yield are recommended as resilient alternatives during market chaos

Market Summary: Staying Calm Amid Geopolitical Chaos

Key Market Performance

The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility over the past five months, declining 0.98% as of March 20, 2026. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 5.44% to levels above 23.5—the highest in months—indicating heightened market uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions and an upcoming midterm election.

Historical Context and Investment Strategy

Analysis of post-geopolitical events shows the S&P 500 historically delivers positive returns over time: -0.4% at one month, but recovering to 1.8% at three months, 6.2% at six months, 9.5% at 12 months, and 22% at 24 months. Moving to cash during volatility proves counterproductive long-term.

When the VIX closes above 23.5 (current scenario), historical data since 2015 shows strong subsequent returns: 2.7% (one month), 6.5% (three months), 11.3% (six months), 21.2% (12 months), and 32.3% (24 months).

Featured Companies and Sectors

Energy sector stocks are receiving significant institutional inflows:

• Archrock, Inc. (AROC): Natural gas industrial supplier with $6.5 billion market cap, down 1.47%. Forward dividend yield: 2.5% with consistent dividend growth.

• Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG): Oil and gas developer with $50 billion market cap, up 2.08%. Forward dividend yield: 2.47% with six months of continuous inflows.

Investment Recommendation

The article advocates for dividend growth stocks as resilient alternatives during volatility, emphasizing that high-volatility periods historically present "buy low" opportunities rather than triggers for defensive cash positions.