Wall St set to open lower as soaring oil prices, Fed caution rattleĀ investors

Reuters | March 19, 2026 at 01:13 PM UTC
Bearish 93% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Brent crude hit $115/barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities in retaliation for Israel's strike on its South Pars gas field, reviving inflation worries
  • Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs and Barclays in delaying rate cut forecasts to September from June; traders now expect no cuts until mid-2027
  • Micron Technology shares fell 5.9% despite strong earnings as higher spending plans drew scrutiny; precious metal miners dropped 6-9% on elevated rate expectations

AI Summary

Market Summary: Wall Street Set to Open Lower on Oil Spike and Fed Caution

Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures declined Thursday, with Dow futures down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures off 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.34% as of 7:12 a.m. ET. Major indices slipped below key technical levels, with the Dow and Nasdaq breaching their 200-day moving averages and the S&P 500 hitting a four-month low.

Key Drivers:

*Oil Crisis:* Brent crude surged to $115/barrel following Iranian attacks on Middle East energy facilities in retaliation for Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field. The U.S. benchmark traded at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years due to strategic reserve releases and elevated freight costs.

*Federal Reserve Stance:* The Fed held rates steady Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell warning of higher inflation ahead. The central bank maintained its forecast of one 25-basis-point rate cut for 2026. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays pushed rate cut expectations from June to September. Traders now anticipate no cuts until mid-2027.

Sector Impact:

*Technology:* Micron Technology dropped 5.9% despite strong earnings, with higher spending plans drawing scrutiny. Related chipmakers fell: SanDisk (-5.5%), Western Digital (-2.9%), and Nvidia (-0.3%).

*Energy-Sensitive Stocks:* Airlines (Delta, United) and cruise lines (Norwegian, Carnival) declined modestly.

*Precious Metals:* Miners suffered on elevated rate expectations, with Gold Fields down 9.4% and Endeavour Silver falling 6.1%.

Outlook:

Investors await policymaker commentary, weekly jobless claims, and potential G7 discussions regarding Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz security.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 94%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 90%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 93%