Janasiewicz: Look Beyond Mag 7 as Crude Oil Volatility Continues

Schwab Network | March 18, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
Neutral 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Futures lower due to hotter-than-expected PPI and concerns about 'higher for longer' oil prices, with the futures curve suggesting continued elevation.
  • A weakening consumer and increasing recession odds (20-30% probability) are key concerns, making it harder for consumers to absorb price increases.
  • Investment strategy shifts from cyclicals to broader, equally-weighted tech for a defensive play, and a preference for Emerging Markets (Latin America, China) over developed international markets.

AI Summary

The discussion focuses on persistent inflation, elevated oil prices, and a weakening consumer, leading to increased recession risks. The guest suggests rotating from cyclical stocks to broader, equally-weighted tech for a defensive bias and prefers emerging markets, particularly Latin America and China, over developed international markets due to terms of trade and energy dynamics.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 90%
Consensus Neutral 90%