How to game out the Fed's next move

• The Fed's decision is anticipated at 2 PM ET, with market probabilities for rate cuts in 2026 having cratered.
• Panelists discuss the impact of rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty on Fed policy, with some advocating for rate cuts to offset deflationary effects.
• Concerns are raised about the Fed's communication regarding private credit valuations and potential systemic risks to the banking system.
• The debate includes whether the current inflation is demand-driven and if rate hikes are an appropriate tool in the current environment.

The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, focusing on market volatility, inflation, and the probability of rate cuts. Experts debate the Fed's potential response to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, with some arguing for rate cuts due to non-demand-driven inflation and others cautioning against further hikes.