No Rate Cut Until December? How Crude Oil & Iran Upset Fed's Dual Mandate

• Fed is expected to hold interest rates today, with a high probability of only one 25 basis point rate cut this year, likely in December.
• The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is anticipated to show reduced growth forecasts, higher unemployment, and elevated PCE inflation for 2026.
• Rising oil prices, potentially leading to $4.25/gallon gasoline, are contributing to inflation, though the US economy is considered resilient enough to absorb the shock without immediate recession.
• The Fed will prioritize price stability, and Chair Powell is expected to deliver a hawkish message, focusing on inflation expectations and underlying price pressures.

The video discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision, anticipating no change today but a cautious outlook for future rate cuts, possibly one by December. Key concerns include persistent inflation driven by energy shocks and broader economic pressures, which will likely lead to a hawkish stance from Chair Powell.