Dow Jones rises as oil above $103, Fed meeting in focus

• Brent crude oil climbed approximately 3% to trade above $103 per barrel amid ongoing concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz due to US-Israel attacks on Iran
• Travel and airline stocks rebounded sharply despite higher fuel costs, with Delta Air Lines up over 6% and American Airlines gaining 3.5% after both raised revenue guidance
• Rate futures now price in just one 25-basis-point Fed cut later in 2026, down from two cuts before the conflict escalation, as the central bank is widely expected to hold rates unchanged

Market Summary: Dow Jones Rises Amid Oil Surge and Fed Meeting

Key Market Performance (March 17, 2026)

US equities closed higher Tuesday as investors balanced geopolitical tensions and monetary policy expectations. The S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716.09, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.47% to 22,479.53, and the Dow Jones added 46.85 points (0.1%) to close at 46,993.26.

Oil and Geopolitical Tensions

Brent crude surged approximately 3% to trade above $103 per barrel, driven by escalating US-Israel military operations against Iran and concerns over potential Strait of Hormuz closures. President Trump stated the US had "decimated Iran's Military" and no longer required NATO assistance, though coalition-building efforts continue. Iranian security chief Ali Larijani was reportedly killed in airstrikes, further intensifying regional instability.

Sector Performance

Travel and Consumer Discretionary: Despite elevated fuel costs, the sector rallied 1%. Delta Air Lines surged 6%, American Airlines gained 3.5%, and United Airlines added 3.2% after revenue guidance upgrades. Expedia and Booking Holdings also posted strong gains.

Energy: Led sector performance with over 1% gains, extending month-to-date advances beyond 4%.

Financials: Recovered with Blackstone up 4.6%, Apollo Global gaining 5.3%, and KKR adding 3.3% following recent private credit market concerns.

Federal Reserve Outlook

The Fed's two-day policy meeting commenced with markets anticipating unchanged rates. Rate futures now price in just one 25-basis-point cut for 2026, down from two cuts before the conflict escalation.

Light trading volumes suggest cautious positioning amid complex geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.