US Consumer Spending Stalls, GDP Takes a Hit

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | March 13, 2026 at 03:01 PM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence
Watch on YouTube

Key Points

  • Core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.1% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target.
  • US GDP growth in Q4 was cut in half to 0.7%, with consumer and business spending also weakening.
  • Bond markets are pricing in an economic slowdown, with the yield curve flattening and rate cuts priced out until 2026-2027.

AI Summary

The video discusses recent US economic data, including persistent core inflation (3.1% YoY) despite slowing consumer and business spending, and a significant cut in Q4 GDP to 0.7%. This data complicates the Federal Reserve's inflation fight, with markets pricing in an economic slowdown and no rate cuts until late 2027, raising questions about the Fed's strategy.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 90%