Dow futures edge up as oil surge, PCE inflation data weigh on markets

• S&P 500 headed for 1% weekly decline, Dow down 1.7%, despite modest Friday futures gains of about 0.3%
• PCE inflation expected to show 2.9% headline and 3.1% core year-over-year increases; oil near $100/barrel as Middle East conflict persists despite US intervention efforts
• Private credit market stress growing with Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Blue Owl halting redemptions; traders now expect only one Fed rate cut in 2026 versus two before conflict

Market Summary: Dow Futures Edge Higher Amid Oil Surge and Inflation Concerns

Market Performance:

US stock index futures showed modest gains on Friday, March 13, 2026, with Dow futures up 135 points (+0.29%), S&P 500 futures gaining 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advancing 0.33%. Despite these gains, major indexes remained on track for weekly losses: S&P 500 down 1%, Dow Jones declining 1.7%, and Nasdaq Composite falling 0.3%.

Key Economic Data:

Investors awaited critical economic releases including the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Consensus forecasts projected headline PCE inflation at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, with core PCE expected at 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annually. Additional data included Q4 GDP's second estimate, January durable goods orders, job openings, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Oil and Geopolitical Pressures:

Crude oil prices hovered near $100 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, despite intervention efforts including emergency oil releases from the International Energy Agency and a US 30-day license for purchasing stranded Russian oil. Rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns and complicated Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Monetary Policy Outlook:

Traders now anticipate only one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, down from two cuts expected before the February 28 conflict began. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting.

Private Credit Concerns:

Market stress emerged in private credit markets, with Morgan Stanley halting fund redemptions, following similar actions by BlackRock and Blue Owl. JPMorgan restricted lending to private credit players, while Blackstone faced increased redemption requests.

Corporate Movers:

Adobe shares fell on leadership and AI concerns, SentinelOne dropped 3.2% on weak profit forecasts, and Meta Platforms slipped 1% after delaying its "Avocado" AI model until May.