Analysts reassess oil price estimates as Iran conflict disrupts markets

• Goldman Sachs forecasts 2026 Brent at $77/barrel and WTI at $72/barrel, while Bank of America predicts $78 and $73 respectively, with most analysts expecting stabilization later in the year
• Macquarie warns crude could surge to $150/barrel or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks, while UBS sees potential for prices exceeding $100-$120/barrel under sustained disruption
• Analysts broadly anticipate elevated prices in the near term before stabilizing, with 2027 forecasts generally lower as pre-war supply surplus is expected to re-emerge

Summary: Oil Price Forecasts Revised Amid Iran Conflict

Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, and HSBC, have revised their oil price forecasts as conflict in Iran enters its second week, disrupting global energy markets.

Key Market Developments

Brent crude and WTI futures reached their highest levels since June 2022 this week, posting weekly gains exceeding 10% and 7% respectively. The surge follows threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 20% of global oil flows. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged Thursday to maintain control of the strait as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.

Analyst Forecasts

2026 Average Price Targets:

• Goldman Sachs: Brent $77/bbl, WTI $72/bbl
• Bank of America: Brent $78/bbl, WTI $73/bbl
• HSBC: Brent $80/bbl, WTI $76/bbl
• Citi: Brent $71/bbl, WTI $68/bbl

Most analysts expect prices to stabilize later in 2026, with 2027 forecasts ranging from $64-71/bbl for Brent. However, extreme scenarios exist: Macquarie warns prices could spike to $150/bbl or higher if the Strait remains closed for weeks, while UBS anticipates potential moves above $100/bbl, possibly reaching $120+/bbl in severe disruption scenarios.

Market Outlook

Analysts broadly agree on near-term price elevation due to supply disruptions, with expectations of normalization as pre-war supply surpluses re-emerge in 2027. The conflict continues to impact global energy and financial markets, creating significant uncertainty for traders and investors in the energy sector.