Dow falls nearly 600 points, oil hits $100 as Iran's new leader to keep Strait of Hormuz blocked

New York Post | March 12, 2026 at 03:34 PM UTC
Bearish 95% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Brent crude hit $100 per barrel and WTI reached $93, with Iran threatening to attack ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly laying mines in the waterway
  • The Energy Secretary stated the US Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the strait, with military assets focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities instead
  • Iraq and Kuwait have begun shutting down some oil field production, and analysts warn prices could remain elevated even after the conflict ends, potentially triggering stagflation

AI Summary

Market Summary: Oil Surges to $100 as Iran Tensions Roil Markets

Market Performance:

U.S. stocks suffered significant losses Thursday, with the Dow Jones falling 590 points (-1.25%), the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.7% as of 11 a.m. ET.

Energy Markets:

  • Brent crude oil surged to $100 per barrel
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reached approximately $93
  • U.S. national average gasoline prices hit $3.60, up over 20% in the past month

Key Developments:

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route handling 20% of global oil supply. Iran has threatened to attack any vessels attempting passage through the strait. Khamenei assumed leadership following U.S.-Israeli strikes that reportedly killed his father and family members.

Policy Response:

President Trump defended "Operation Epic Fury" operations in Iran, arguing that preventing Iran's nuclear capabilities outweighs concerns about rising oil prices. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the strait, with capabilities expected by month-end. Iraq and Kuwait have begun shutting down some oil field production, while Iran has reportedly started mining the strait.

Economic Implications:

Economists warn the energy shock could trigger stagflation—a toxic combination of high inflation and weak growth—as rising energy costs ripple through consumer prices while labor markets weaken. Analysts predict oil prices may remain elevated even after hostilities end due to production disruptions and regional instability.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 95%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 95%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 97%
Consensus Bearish 95%