Iran Supply Chain Shock to Last Weeks, Not Months, BlackRock's Boivin Says

• BlackRock believes the energy-led supply chain shock will be short-lived, measured in weeks to a couple of months, not prolonged months.
• Current tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are 16% below normal, but the market is already pricing in 90s+ crude until June.
• Boivin suggests that while the shock challenges benign inflation narratives, it's not a stagflationary risk unless $100+ crude prices persist for many months, which he deems unsustainable.

Jean Boivin from BlackRock Investment Institute assesses the energy-led supply chain shock from the Middle East conflict, stating it's likely to be short-lived, lasting weeks to a couple of months rather than prolonged periods. He notes current disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz but believes the world cannot sustain $100+ crude prices for an extended duration, which would otherwise challenge inflation narratives and impact growth.