Wall Street futures drop as Middle East tensions lift oil prices to $100

• Oil prices jumped to around $100/barrel after two tankers were set ablaze in Iraqi waters; Iran warned prices could reach $200/barrel amid broader Middle East attacks on oil facilities
• Goldman Sachs pushed back its Fed rate-cut forecast to September from June, with market pricing now showing only one quarter-point cut expected by December instead of two
• The Trump administration launched trade probes into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, rebuilding tariff pressure after the Supreme Court dismantled much of the previous tariff program

Market Summary: Wall Street Futures Drop on Middle East Tensions and Oil Spike

March 12, 2026

Key Market Movements

U.S. stock index futures declined Thursday, with Dow futures down 0.55%, S&P 500 futures down 0.44%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.44%. The CBOE volatility index rose 1.01 points to 25.24, reflecting heightened market anxiety.

Oil Price Surge

Crude oil prices surged to approximately $100 per barrel following Iranian strikes that set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters. Iran warned prices could reach $200 per barrel. The escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is disrupting oil supplies and roiling global markets.

Sector Impact

Airlines and cruise lines face significant pressure, with S&P 500 airline stocks tracking toward their largest monthly losses in a year. American Airlines and Southwest fell over 1% in premarket trading, along with Norwegian and Royal Caribbean. Energy stocks Occidental and EQT Corporation gained marginally.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

Goldman Sachs delayed its Fed rate-cut forecast to September from June. Money market futures now price in only one quarter-point cut by December, down from two previously expected, as elevated oil prices complicate monetary policy easing plans and raise stagflation concerns.

Additional Developments

• Trump administration launched trade probes into excess industrial capacity across 16 major trading partners
• Private credit market concerns emerged, with scrutiny on the $2 trillion sector following credit issues
• Blue Owl dropped 0.8% and Blackstone fell 0.6% amid portfolio weakness concerns
• Bumble surged 24% on stronger-than-expected Q4 revenue

Investors await jobless claims data and Friday's PCE inflation report.