Fed's next rate decision almost certainly a pause, says former Fed vice chair Roger Ferguson

• Fed is 'almost certainly' to pause interest rate hikes next week.
• Reasons for pause include the Fed's 'wait and see' attitude, mixed labor market data, and a CPI report that was 'roughly as expected'.
• A potential inflation spike from oil prices is likely 'stagflationary' and temporary, not building into long-term inflation expectations that would force further tightening.
• The Fed's primary focus remains its dual mandate (low and stable prices, full employment) and maintaining its independence amidst political dynamics.

Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson anticipates the Federal Reserve will almost certainly pause interest rate hikes next week. He attributes this to the Fed's 'wait and see' stance, mixed labor market data, and a CPI report that was 'roughly as expected'. While acknowledging a potential temporary spike in inflation due to oil prices, he believes it's more likely to be 'stagflationary' rather than leading to embedded long-term inflation expectations, thus not forcing the Fed to tighten further.