Philippine Stock Exchange: 'All bets are off' if the Middle East conflict continues indefinitely

CNBC International TV | March 11, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
Neutral 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • The Philippines is 96% dependent on oil, making its economy and market highly vulnerable to price surges.
  • Government measures include a 4-day work week for civil servants and seeking approval to suspend fuel excise taxes.
  • PSEI's performance shows a strong inverse correlation with Brent Crude prices; market downturns coincide with oil surges.
  • The duration of the Middle East conflict is critical; a short resolution could lead to market recovery, but prolonged conflict means 'all bets are off'.
  • Despite recent market dips, the IPO pipeline remains active, with Maya Bank expected to list in Q3 and Gcash exploring an IPO with adjusted public float requirements.
  • Foreign investors showed net buying in Jan-Feb, recovering half of the previous year's net selling, but net selling resumed after the February 28 incident.

AI Summary

Ramon Monzon discusses the Philippine market's sensitivity to rising oil prices due to high import dependency, government measures to mitigate impact, and the outlook for IPOs. He emphasizes that the duration of the Middle East conflict is key for market sentiment.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 90%
Consensus Neutral 90%