The global economy is subject to more violent and frequent shocks, says Mohamed El-Erian

• El-Erian assesses the market's probability of a temporary, reversible shock at 80%, while he believes it's closer to 50%, citing multiple sources of fragility.
• He expects GDP growth to be 0.5% lower and inflation 1% higher than otherwise, with European central banks hiking rates and the Fed remaining unchanged.
• He emphasizes that oil supply chains are not easily turned on/off, taking weeks to months to resume production, and warns against repeating 'transitory inflation' mistakes.

Mohamed El-Erian discusses the market's underestimation of current geopolitical and economic shocks, particularly regarding oil prices and inflation. He believes the global economy faces more frequent and violent shocks, leading to lower GDP growth and higher inflation, with central banks likely to react differently.