U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%
CNBC Television
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March 06, 2026 at 02:45 PM UTC
Bearish
95% Confidence
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Key Points
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, significantly missing the +50,000 estimate.
- January payrolls were revised down to 126,000, resulting in a two-month revision of -69,000.
- The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected), and labor force participation dropped to 62.0% (vs. 62.5% expected), marking the weakest participation since November/December 2021.
- Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, both slightly better than expected, while weekly hours worked remained steady at 34.3.
AI Summary
The February jobs report revealed a significant and unexpected decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 92,000, contrasting with an estimated gain of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations, while labor force participation dropped to 62.0%. Average hourly earnings, however, were slightly better than anticipated.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 95% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 95% |