U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

CNBC Television | March 06, 2026 at 02:45 PM UTC
Bearish 95% Confidence
Watch on YouTube

Key Points

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, significantly missing the +50,000 estimate.
  • January payrolls were revised down to 126,000, resulting in a two-month revision of -69,000.
  • The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected), and labor force participation dropped to 62.0% (vs. 62.5% expected), marking the weakest participation since November/December 2021.
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, both slightly better than expected, while weekly hours worked remained steady at 34.3.

AI Summary

The February jobs report revealed a significant and unexpected decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 92,000, contrasting with an estimated gain of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations, while labor force participation dropped to 62.0%. Average hourly earnings, however, were slightly better than anticipated.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 95%