Nasdaq to lead US stocks lower as Middle East tensions overshadow jobs report

• February non-farm payrolls expected to show 60,000 jobs added versus 130,000 in January, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, reducing expectations for interest rate cuts this year
• All three major indices closed lower Thursday with the Dow dropping 1.6%, S&P 500 down 0.6%, and Nasdaq slipping 0.3% as the Middle East conflict entered its seventh day
• Oil prices climbed sharply with WTI up 6% to $85.87, as markets price in disrupted energy flows, higher inflation, and more restrictive monetary policy with rising bond yields

Market Summary: US Stocks Set to Fall on Middle East Tensions

Market Overview:

US equity futures pointed to a weaker open on Friday, March 6, 2026, with the Nasdaq leading declines down 0.9%, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures fell 0.6%. This follows Thursday's losses where the Dow dropped 1.6%, S&P 500 declined 0.6%, and Nasdaq slipped 0.3%.

Key Driver:

Escalating Middle East conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran entered its seventh day, overshadowing typical market focus on the monthly jobs report. The geopolitical tensions are driving risk-off sentiment across markets.

Jobs Report Expectations:

• February non-farm payrolls expected to show 60,000 jobs added (down from 130,000 in January, subject to potential downward revision)
• Unemployment forecast to hold steady at 4.3%
• Combined with potential inflation return, expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2026 are growing

Energy Market Impact:

Brent crude surged 1.5% to $86.71 per barrel, tracking toward its largest weekly gain since 2022. WTI crude jumped 6% to $85.87. The conflict is disrupting global energy flows, raising concerns about prolonged elevated oil prices.

Market Implications:

Analysts warn markets are pricing in "higher-for-longer" oil prices, disrupted trade flows, weaker economic output, and elevated inflation. This environment suggests more restrictive monetary policy ahead, with rising bond yields creating secondary pressure on equity valuations.

Sectors Affected:

Energy markets remain in sharp focus as geopolitical risk premiums build into commodity prices, with broader implications for inflation expectations and central bank policy trajectory.