European markets set for mixed open as traders track Middle East turmoil

CNBC | March 04, 2026 at 08:07 AM UTC
Neutral 90% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • President Trump announced the U.S. would provide insurance to tankers in the Persian Gulf and deploy Navy escorts if necessary to maintain maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Asian markets experienced severe volatility, with South Korea's Kospi plunging over 12% overnight before recovering some losses
  • U.K. stocks are forecast to open 0.3% higher while German and French markets are expected flat and Italian stocks slightly lower

AI Summary

European Markets Face Mixed Open Amid Middle East Conflict

European markets are expected to open mixed on Wednesday as investors continue monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East. The U.K.'s index is projected to open 0.3% higher, while Germany's and France's markets are expected flat, and Italy's slightly lower, according to IG data.

Key Market Movements:

Regional stocks traded sharply lower on Tuesday, with banking, insurance, travel and leisure, and utilities sectors leading losses. Asian markets experienced significant volatility, with South Korea's Kospi plunging over 12% overnight before recovering some losses.

Geopolitical Developments:

U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran continued overnight, prompting Western nations to organize evacuation flights for citizens in the region. The conflict has severely disrupted global investor sentiment and maritime traffic through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Policy Response:

President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would provide insurance to tankers operating in the Persian Gulf to restore maritime traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy will escort tankers if necessary, a move that helped stabilize some market sentiment in extended trading Tuesday.

Market Impact:

The ongoing conflict has created widespread volatility across global markets, particularly affecting sectors dependent on Middle Eastern stability and energy transportation routes. U.S. equities experienced a volatile session Tuesday night following the Asian market turmoil.

Upcoming Catalysts:

Investors await EU unemployment figures and multiple corporate earnings updates scheduled for release Wednesday, which may provide additional direction for European trading.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 95%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Neutral 90%