Ariel's Rogers Sees Small Risk of US Recession

• Current market volatility is unusual, stemming from 'conscious policy decisions' like tariffs and geopolitical actions.
• President Trump cares about markets and will eventually adjust, but there's a risk he might go 'too far' with policy decisions.
• Rogers worries about potential retaliation from Iran, drawing parallels to 9/11 and hoping for no similar events.
• He maintains his January forecast for a 'small recession' by year-end, with a potential 15-20% decline in the Dow, due to average consumers struggling with high living costs while wealthy consumers continue to spend.

John Rogers of Ariel Investments discusses the current market volatility, attributing it to 'conscious policy decisions' from the administration regarding tariffs and geopolitical tensions. He expresses concern about potential escalation with Iran and reiterates his prediction of a 'small recession' by year-end, driven by struggling average consumers despite wealthy individuals maintaining spending.