Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Key Countries Most Affected

• South Asia faces immediate physical strain: Qatar and UAE account for 99% of Pakistan's LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh's, and 53% of India's, while India also sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East.
• Japan and South Korea are highly exposed with 75% and 70% of oil imports from the Middle East respectively, holding only 2-4 weeks of LNG reserves and facing severe current-account pressures.
• Thailand emerges as the most vulnerable to oil price shocks with net oil imports at 4.7% of GDP, where each 10% oil price rise worsens its current account by 0.5 percentage points of GDP.

Summary: Strait of Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Energy Markets

Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with vessels warned against transit, creating severe disruptions to global energy supplies. The strait handles approximately 13 million barrels per day—31% of all seaborne crude oil flows as of 2025.

Market Impact:

Oil prices have surged nearly 10% since conflict outbreak, with global benchmark crude trading up 2.6% at $80 per barrel. Analysts predict prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the closure persists. Additionally, 20% of global LNG exports from the Gulf, primarily from Qatar, are at risk. Qatar suspended LNG exports Monday after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial Cities.

Regional Vulnerabilities:

South Asia: Faces most acute disruption. Qatar and UAE supply 99% of Pakistan's LNG, 72% of Bangladesh's, and 53% of India's imports. India also sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East, creating significant current-account pressures.

China: Despite 40% of oil imports passing through Hormuz and purchasing 80% of Iranian oil, China maintains 7.6 million tons of LNG inventory and has greater procurement flexibility.

Japan/South Korea: The Middle East provides 75% of Japan's and 70% of South Korea's oil imports. Limited inventories (2-4 weeks) increase vulnerability. South Korea's net oil imports represent 2.7% of GDP.

Southeast Asia: Thailand faces the largest exposure with net oil imports at 4.7% of GDP; each 10% oil price increase worsens its current account by 0.5 percentage points.

Nomura identifies Thailand, India, South Korea, and the Philippines as most vulnerable to higher oil prices due to high import dependence.