Expect March to be an up month for the stock market, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

CNBC Television | March 02, 2026 at 02:46 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Geopolitical events like Iran strikes cause initial market sell-offs and increased risk premiums (VIX jumps), but historically don't alter long-term US fundamentals.
  • Tom Lee predicts March will be an 'up month' for the stock market, with a potential rebound in oversold sectors like software and the 'Mag 7'.
  • Higher oil prices could create a price shock, but the US economy is robust enough to avoid recession, and the Fed might adopt a dovish stance.
  • He remains bullish on crypto, particularly Ethereum, citing strong underlying development despite the current 'crypto winter' and expects a bottom soon.

AI Summary

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors discusses the market's reaction to Iran strikes, noting that while risk premiums jump, US fundamentals remain strong. He anticipates March will be an 'up month' for the stock market, with a potential dovish Fed response to oil price shocks. He also sees an overreaction in software stocks and a nearing bottom for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%