European stocks set to slump as markets react to U.S., Israeli strikes on Iran

CNBC | March 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM UTC
Bearish 96% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • European indices expected to drop significantly at open: U.K. down 0.6%, Germany down 1.5%, France down 1.4%, and Italy down 1.2%
  • Oil prices jumped more than 8% on Sunday amid fears of major supply disruptions, while airline stocks fell sharply due to Middle East airspace closures
  • The military assault was launched after Iran refused U.S. demands to curb its nuclear program and negotiations ended without a deal on Thursday

AI Summary

Summary: European Markets Poised to Drop on U.S.-Israeli Strikes Against Iran

Key Event: U.S. and Israeli forces launched widespread military strikes on Iran over the weekend, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The attacks followed Iran's refusal to curb its nuclear program after failed negotiations on Thursday.

Market Impact:

European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower on Monday:

  • UK: down 0.6%
  • Germany: down 1.5%
  • France: down 1.4%
  • Italy: down 1.2%

Casualties and Retaliation:

Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes against U.S. bases in the Middle East, killing three American service members. The U.S. and Israel are urging Iranian citizens to overthrow the regime.

Sector Performance:

  • Oil: Crude prices surged more than 8% on Sunday as investors anticipate major supply disruptions
  • Airlines: Airline stocks experiencing sharp declines due to Middle East airspace disruptions and airport closures
  • Equities: Asian markets tumbled Monday morning, with global markets uniformly lower

Economic Calendar:

European investors will monitor earnings from Bank of Ireland Group, Smith & Nephew, and Galp Energia, alongside key data releases including German retail sales and Italian GDP figures.

Market Implications:

The escalating Middle East conflict is triggering a classic risk-off environment, with investors fleeing equities for safe-haven assets. Energy markets face significant uncertainty as the critical oil-producing region destabilizes, while transportation and travel sectors confront operational disruptions.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 95%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 98%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 97%
Consensus Bearish 96%