Nasdaq 100: Sellers Take Control as Tech Stocks Drag US Indices Today – Forecast & Analysis
Key Points
- Technical resistance formed at the 50-day moving average (25,456) and 200-day moving average (24,510.75), with the index trading below the mid-point pivot at 24,983.50, indicating continued selling pressure
- C3.ai plunged 20% after issuing weak sales guidance and announcing a 26% workforce reduction, while Trade Desk fell 5% on disappointing revenue forecasts
- Big banks including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup each rose nearly 1%, and energy stocks climbed 0.9% as crude oil prices reversed earlier losses to gain over 1%
AI Summary
Market Summary: Tech Selloff Drives US Indices Lower
Key Market Movements:
The Nasdaq Composite led Thursday's decline, falling 1.53% to 22,796.76, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.87% to 6,885.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed relative resilience, slipping just 0.23% to 49,369.88.
Technical Analysis:
March E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures failed to break above the critical 50-day moving average at 25,456.00, with key resistance levels at 25,411.75 (long-term 50%) and 25,294.50 (intermediate-term 50%). The index now trades between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA at 24,510.75, with the mid-point at 24,983.50 serving as a directional pivot. Current positioning below this pivot indicates sustained selling pressure.
Sector Performance:
Tech and communication services sectors suffered the steepest losses. However, financials bucked the trend with a 0.8% gain, while energy stocks climbed 0.9% following crude oil's 1% rebound.
Individual Movers:
- Winners: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup each rose nearly 1%. J.M. Smucker surged 6% after beating Q3 expectations and reaching a board deal with Elliott Investment Management. Celsius Holdings gained 7.3% on strong Q4 revenue.
- Losers: C3.ai plummeted 20% after announcing weak sales guidance and a 26% workforce reduction. Trade Desk fell 5% on disappointing Q1 revenue guidance.
Market Context:
February has seen volatile trading as investor sentiment toward AI and tech stocks wavered, driving rotation into "Old Economy" blue chips. Investors are monitoring U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, which could impact crude oil and equity markets heading into the weekend.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 82% |