'Follow the leverage' to find risks: CIO says AI stocks still trading at premiums despite correction

CNBC International TV | February 25, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
Bearish 85% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Future risk is seen in private assets (private equity, private credit) due to leverage, with parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Blue Owl (OWL) is highlighted for its significant loan exposure to the software sector, which, despite a correction, still trades at a 170% premium to the S&P 500.
  • Concerns are raised about the return on investment for the AI CapEx boom, suggesting a potential meaningful correction for the Asian supply chain (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, semi-names) that has benefited from it.

AI Summary

Nick Ferres expresses significant concerns about excessive leverage in private assets, particularly private equity and private credit, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. He questions the return on investment for the AI CapEx boom by hyperscalers and warns of potential corrections in the Asian semiconductor supply chain, despite previously being bullish on the region.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 85%