Top earners are more afraid for their employment than lower income as AI threat increases

• University of Michigan surveys show labor market sentiment among top one-third of earners at lowest levels since 2009, with unemployment expectations elevated despite lower-income workers feeling relatively more confident
• ADP data reveals turnover in professional and business services hit the lowest level ever recorded in January, indicating reduced job-switching among white-collar workers
• Despite anxiety, actual unemployment remains low for high-income sectors: finance at 2.1% and professional services at 4.5% in January, while Fed officials suggest AI will ultimately enable workers rather than just displace them

Summary: High-Income Workers Face Greater AI-Related Job Anxiety

Key Findings

Higher-earning white-collar workers are experiencing unprecedented employment anxiety due to AI threats, causing them to remain in current positions longer. Multiple data sources confirm this trend:

• University of Michigan survey: Labor market sentiment among top-third earners hit its lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis (score of 38, matching 1980 levels)
• New York Fed Survey: Job-finding expectations if unemployed reached near-record lows (data since mid-2013)
• ADP data: Professional and business services recorded their lowest-ever turnover rate in January 2025

Market Implications

UBS Chief Economist Arend Kapteyn attributes the trend partially to "AI fear," noting white-collar positions face greater displacement risk than lower-income jobs. This anxiety is creating labor market stagnation, with ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noting the market is "defined more by inactivity than vigor."

Current Employment Landscape

Despite anxiety, high-earning sectors maintain strong employment:

• Finance sector unemployment: 2.1% (January)
• Professional/business services: 4.5% (down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year)

Expert Perspectives

Federal Reserve officials offer cautious optimism. Fed Governor Christopher Waller called AI an unprecedented technological revolution. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized AI will "enable" workers, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid suggested AI will be necessary to supplement declining labor force growth.

The phenomenon represents a significant shift in labor market dynamics, with traditionally secure white-collar professionals now experiencing heightened job insecurity comparable to recessionary periods.