OPEC+ May Boost Oil Output by 137,000 BPD in April

• The production increase would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and members like the UAE to regain market share after pausing increases in the first quarter of 2026
• Brent crude prices are near their highest levels since July, supported by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and OPEC member Iran
• Saudi Arabia has activated a contingency plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case U.S. strikes on Iran disrupt Middle East oil flows

OPEC+ Poised to Resume Oil Output Increases in April

OPEC+ is likely to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (BPD) in April, ending a three-month pause maintained throughout the first quarter of 2026, according to three sources familiar with the group's deliberations. The decision comes as Brent crude prices hover near seven-month highs and the alliance prepares for peak summer demand.

Key Meeting Details:

Eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—will convene on March 1 to finalize the decision. The production increase would allow major producers, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to regain market share.

Geopolitical Factors:

Rising tensions between the United States and Iran are supporting higher oil prices and influencing production decisions. In a separate but related development, Saudi Arabia has activated a contingency plan for a short-term output and export surge in case U.S. strikes on Iran disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows, according to two sources familiar with Saudi planning.

Market Implications:

The modest production increase signals OPEC+'s cautious approach to balancing market share recovery with price stability. The 137,000 BPD addition represents a gradual unwinding of production cuts rather than an aggressive market flood. However, the activation of Saudi Arabia's emergency surge capacity indicates concern about potential supply disruptions that could spike prices further.

The resumption of increases after the Q1 pause suggests OPEC+ confidence in demand strength heading into the summer driving season, though geopolitical risks remain a wildcard for global oil markets.