Consumer confidence rebounds in February as Americans grow less pessimistic about jobs
Key Points
- Four of five index components firmed in February, with the labor market differential (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) improving from -10% to -7.5%
- Confidence rose among Republicans and Independents but continued declining for Democrats; younger consumers under 35 showed the most optimism among age groups
- Despite the uptick, consumer write-in responses remained pessimistic, focused on prices, tariffs, cost of goods, and political uncertainty
AI Summary
Summary: Consumer Confidence Rebounds in February Amid Improved Jobs Outlook
Key Findings
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2 points to 91.2 in February, up from a revised 89 in January (originally reported as 84.5, the lowest since May 2014). This exceeded economists' expectations of 87, according to LSEG polling.
Labor Market Sentiment
Americans grew less pessimistic about employment conditions, with improved labor market differentials driving the uptick. Four of five index components strengthened, though the measure remains well below the November 2024 four-year peak. Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months ahead became less negative, while income expectations turned more positive.
Demographic Breakdown
- Age: Consumers under 35 (Generation Z) showed the most optimism with rising confidence; those 35+ experienced slight declines
- Political affiliation: Republicans and Independents grew more confident after January declines; Democrats became less optimistic
Economic Concerns
Despite improvement, consumer sentiment "continued to skew toward pessimism," according to Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson. Top concerns include prices, cost of goods, tariffs, and immigration. Views on current financial situations declined, though future financial expectations remained steady.
Market Implications
The confidence rebound suggests stabilizing consumer sentiment and labor market expectations, potentially supporting consumer spending—a key economic growth driver. However, persistent concerns about inflation and costs, combined with confidence levels remaining significantly below recent peaks, indicate continued consumer caution. Plans to purchase homes increased, signaling potential housing market activity.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 82% |