Fed Governor Says US Likely Lost Jobs in 2025

• Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed job creation averaged just 15,000 positions per month in 2025, but Waller expects further downward revisions confirming negative job growth
• Involuntary part-time workers totaled 4.9 million in January, up 410,000 from a year earlier, as employers cut hours rather than jobs
• Research shows 60% of Americans now earn primary income outside fixed salaries, with 40% relying on side jobs, creating income volatility that affects bill-pay timing and credit performance

Summary: Fed Governor Signals US Job Losses in 2025

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller announced at a National Association for Business Economics conference on February 23, 2026, that the United States likely experienced net job losses in 2025, marking only the third time payroll employment has declined outside of a recession since 1945.

Key Data Points:

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed job creation averaged just 15,000 new positions monthly in 2025
• Waller indicated these figures contained "upward bias" and will likely be revised downward
• Involuntary part-time workers totaled 4.9 million in January, up 410,000 from the prior year
• 60% of Americans now earn primary income outside fixed salaries
• 40% of consumers earn supplemental income from side jobs

Market Implications:

The declining employment situation reveals significant labor market fragmentation beneath surface-level stability. Employers are managing demand by reducing hours rather than eliminating positions entirely, creating "hours volatility" that translates into "income volatility" for workers.

This shift has direct consequences for the financial services sector, particularly banking, FinTech, and payments companies. Households experiencing uneven paychecks are increasingly relying on nontraditional income streams, gig work, and contract positions—often not by choice.

The trend drives demand for financial products addressing cash flow gaps, including earned wage access programs, instant payouts, and flexible payment solutions. The elevated level of involuntary part-time work, combined with growing dependence on supplemental income, affects bill-pay timing, credit performance, and overall financial stability for American consumers.

This employment deterioration suggests potential challenges for consumer spending and economic growth ahead.