The tariff toll: How tariff uncertainty could impact businesses

• The Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs was seen as welcome news, but the overall economic pain from tariffs is far from over.
• Trump tariffs previously amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per US household in 2025; remaining new tariffs are projected to result in a $700 burden in 2026.
• Economists anticipate somewhat less inflation and a reduced hit to growth this year, but the overall impact of tariffs will still be felt.
• Businesses are expected to face renewed uncertainty over future tariff rates and may not lower prices previously raised due to tariffs.
• National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett publicly apologized for suggesting discipline for NY Fed researchers who found US consumers and businesses paid 90% of tariffs.
• The administration's intent to replace tariffs one-for-one suggests the policy outlook for interest rates is unlikely to change.
• Potential legal challenges to new tariff authorities (like Section 122, Section 232, Section 301) are expected, adding to business uncertainty.

The discussion centers on the economic impact of evolving tariff policies, noting that while some emergency tariffs are ending, new ones are anticipated. This creates significant uncertainty for businesses and households, potentially leading to continued economic burdens and legal challenges, despite some expectations of slightly less inflation and a reduced hit to growth this year.